Preliminary Analysis: Delinquencies Surge Following March’s Record Low

Mortgage News May 31, 2023

Black Knight has released their most recent “preliminary” report on mortgage performance statistics for the end of April 2023, revealing an overall increase of 13% in the delinquency rate compared to the previous month’s record low.

The rise in delinquencies was primarily driven by early-stage borrowers who were 30 days late on their payments. This segment experienced a significant increase of 200,000 (+25%), mirroring the impact observed during previous calendar-related events.

Nationwide, there was a continued improvement in serious delinquencies (loans that were 90+ days past due), as the number of such loans decreased in 45 states (90%), along with the District of Columbia, during the month of April.

In April, foreclosure starts decreased by 23% to 25,000, marking the lowest number since September 2022 and a significant 45% decline compared to pre-pandemic levels in April 2019. Foreclosure actions were initiated for only about 5% of borrowers who were seriously delinquent, slightly lower than in March and more than four percentage points below the average before the pandemic. Additionally, the active inventory decreased by 6,000 during the month, reaching a 21% decline of 60,000 from March 2020. In March 2023, there were 6,400 foreclosure sales reported, reflecting a 14% decrease from the previous month.

The total U.S. loan delinquency rate, which includes loans that are 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, stands at 3.31%. This represents a month-over-month change of 13.32% and a year-over-year change of 2.11%.

The total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate currently stands at 0.44%. This reflects a month-over-month change of -2.60% and a year-over-year change of 4.90%.

The total U.S. foreclosure starts for the period are reported as 25,000. This indicates a month-over-month change of -22.81% and a year-over-year change of -32.16%.

The monthly prepayment rate, also known as the Single Monthly Mortality (SMM), is recorded at 0.44%. This represents a month-over-month change of -12.56% and a substantial year-over-year change of -58.63%.

Furthermore, there were 6,400 foreclosure sales reported. This signifies a month-over-month change of -13.99% and a year-over-year change of 14.33%.

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